Whose count is the more accurate?

PATERSON - The last time it counted, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated that 150,869 people live here.

But Paterson's official Web site now boasts a population of 172,648.

Officials reached Monday, however, were unsure where the larger number originated or if it's accurate. If the city government is right, it means that there are now 21,779 more people living in Paterson than the Census Bureau found.

"You're not going to get anything official on the 170,000. The only official number that you're going to get is the Census number," said Business Administrator Eli Burgos.

Second Ward Councilman Aslon Goow Sr. says - based on driving around and observing extra doorbells on houses, lights in attics and air conditioners in basement windows - that the city is supporting far more than the Census counted.

He maintains that the Census and its annual population estimates have missed at least 20,000 city residents living in illegally converted apartments.

"Now it's become very obvious there's a problem here," Goow said. "I don't know if anyone really has gone out to see. Everybody knows it, but nobody's really addressing it."

In 2001, then-Mayor Martin G. Barnes publicly scolded the Census Bureau for undercounting and estimated that 22,000 people were missed in 2000. His administration based that number, a Barnes spokesman said then, on school enrollment, cable television subscriptions, gas and water meters, telephones and building permits.

But a Census Bureau spokesman said Monday that it considers such things in its annual estimates. The bureau takes the 2000 Census as a baseline and adjusts after examining birth and death records, building permits and tax returns, said Robert Bernstein, a public affairs specialist for the U.S. Census Bureau.

Bernstein acknowledged that Census estimates are sometimes off the mark. In a 2000 study of estimates, it found that cities of more than 100,000 people had a margin of error of 4.3 percent. For Paterson, that would have allowed for as many as 157,356 people.

The city has tried, Burgos said, to get a more accurate count of its population over the years. Last year, when the city hired a company to revalue properties, the council asked the revaluation company to count the number of electric meters and mailboxes to better estimate the population. The company refused, Burgos said, fearing that if residents thought company personnel were looking for illegal conversions, they would be unwilling to allow them to examine properties for tax purposes.

Burgos said that he was unaware of any new surveys that found the additional 22,000 people, but that until a better count can be found, the city will just have to estimate based on the observations of inspectors and other city employees.

Last year, Paterson was ranked 148th in the country, between Springfield, Mass., and Springfield, Mo. If Paterson does indeed hold 172,648 people, it would be the 125th largest city in the country, just above Ontario, Calif., and below Worcester, Mass.

In fact, the Census found in 2000 that Worcester was also home to exactly 172,648 people.

"There's nothing scientific about it," Burgos said. "Anything beyond what the Census tract indicates would just have to be speculation."

Reach Tom Meagher at (973) 569-7152 or meagher@northjersey.com.

Reproduced with permission of North Jersey Media Group